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Weather Trends - November 2006

Snow, rain expected to dampen store traffic

NOVEMBER 2006: A year ago, November ranked as the ninth hottest in 111 years of national weather records. But a late cold surge in the East around Thanksgiving and Black Friday along with dry weather nationally helped to keep retail sales up in the 3.5% range.

This year, the cold weather starts earlier and that will help move fall categories at a quicker pace with November expected to be the coldest in at least four years. However, snow and a widespread increase in rainfall will put a dampening affect on overall store traffic. The heaviest snow is likely in the North Central United States, Great Lakes and Southern Rocky Mountains. There’s even a chance for an early event in the mountains of North Carolina.

An ICSC-Weather Trends consumer survey of a 1,014 households found 45% of respondents would cancel a planned shopping trip due to snow, 37% would do the same for rain followed by 35% for excessive cold. With all of these a potential for the start of the holiday shopping season, a slow down in same-store sales gains is possible.

There will be media discussion of a developing El Nino (rapid warming of the Pacific Ocean) and a soggy Winter pattern for the nation’s southern tier which can boost to indoor home improvement projects and furniture. Weather Trends International expects this developing El Nino to be the strongest in 10 years with a peak in the late 2007 and early 2008 timeframe, an event that will likely dominate media discussionsand debates on how it is or is not tied into climate change. 


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  Source

jgrum@survdata.com
www.wxtrends.com

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