Weather Trends - June 2006

-- Casual Living, 7/10/2006 6:39:00 AM

Warmer Southeast and West

Last year, June was the best retail sales month for the entire year with retail same-store sales averaging +5.2% as there was strong pent-up demand for seasonal categories following one of the coldest months of May in 22 years and the coldest overall Spring 2005 in at least five years. Nationally, June 2005 was the warmest/driest in three years that ranked as the 27th warmest in 111 years.

This year, the warmer weather will shift from the nation’s Central and Northeast regions into the West and the Southeast. Recall that many states in the Great Lakes and Northeast last year had a Top 10 warmest June on record, which drove exceptional demand for seasonal categories. A much cooler and wetter pattern in the Great Lakes and Northeast this year will dampen demand in those regions.

Since Spring 2006 has been much stronger for seasonal items (much warmer than last year), this will also cannibalize June sales to some extent in the Midwest and Northeast. On the flip side, the West Coast has had a very cold/wet Spring, so brighter days in June will bring strong sales gains for the outdoor furniture industry.

The Gulf of Mexico water temperatures, trending well above average, are the warmest levels in several years. This will increase the threat of a quick start to the 2006 Hurricane Season, which officially began June 1.

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jgrum@survdata.com
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