Forecast more favorable than last September

Forecast more favorable than last September

Jack Grum, Vice President -- Casual Living, 9/1/2009 12:00:00 AM

September 2008 started out with the coldest early September weather in 11 years, which was unfavorable for pool and patio clearance sales.

During the month's first weekend last year, Tropical Storm Hanna soaked the East Coast. That storm was followed by Hurricane Ike, which dumped 5–10 inches of rain from Galveston to Chicago on Sept. 12–14. Both excessive rain events struck densely populated regions and happened on weekends, resulting in a negative for store traffic and sales even before the stock market meltdown.

September 2009 will begin much more favorably by trending warmer for 18 out of the first 21 days. The first shot of cool fall temperatures will arrive around the 20th, beginning in the Rockies and spreading eastward. Nationally, this month will trend drier than last year and below the 10-year average.

Clearance sales of outdoor categories should be strong, especially the first two weeks of September. However, a landfalling tropical system is not unusual for this time of year anywhere from the Central Texas Gulf Coast to North Carolina, and could put a damper on store traffic and sales.

610-807-3586, jgrum@wxtrends.com, www.wxtrends.com