Grill sales to reach $3.7 billion in 2012

Greatest increases expected in West and South

-- Casual Living, 2/1/2008 12:00:00 AM

Grill sales over the next five years are expected to increase nationally by 15.6%, going from $3.2 billion in 2007 to $3.7 billion in 2012, according to the most recent projections by New York-based Easy Analytic Software Inc.

The greatest increases will come in the West and South. Both are expected to increase sales in the 18% range. Nearly three-fifths of grill sales take place in the two regions.

More than one-half of the metropolitan areas in the West and one-third of the metropolitan areas in the South will exceed the national sales growth if EASI's projections hold.

Increases of grill sales in the Northeast and Midwest are expected to lag considerably behind. The Midwest will grow grill sales by about 13%; the Northeast by about 12%.

The nation's fastest-growing metro area for grill sales in the next five years will be Palm Coast, Fla., expected to increase sales by nearly 50%.

Of the 50 metro areas expected to see the greatest increase in grill sales over the next five years, 21 are in the West, with sales increases ranging from 22% to nearly 38%; 28 are in the South, with sales increases ranging from Calhoun, Ga.'s 22% to Palm Coast, Fla.'s national high. East Stroudsburg, Pa., is the lone metro in the Northeast to make the Top 50 list, with projected sales growth of 24.5%. No Midwest metro makes the Top 50 growth list.

EASI's statisticians take into account population shifts and assume inflation rates that are even nationally when making their projections. Their crystal balls don't take into account local economic changes such as plant closings or even national economic climate changes such as the current housing meltdown.

Where the growth is

In the West

% of metros in the West projected to exceed the national average in growth of grill sales

66% of large metros

44% of small metros

54% of all metros

Easi's statisticians project the fastest sales growth for grills in the Western states. Sales in 2007 were estimated at $710.1 million; they're projected to reach $840.2 million in 2012, an 18.3% jump. Of the 50 metro areas in the nation projected to have the greatest growth in grill sales, 27 are in the West. Three of them, St. George, Utah, Pahrump, Nev. and Heber, Utah, are expected to increase sales by more than one-third over their 2007 levels. More than one-half of the region's metros are expected to increase grill sales at a rate faster than the national average.

In the South

% of metros in the South projected to exceed the national average in growth of grill sales

48% of large metros

23% of small metros

32% of all metros

The South is the nation's largest region in terms of geography, population and grill sales. Last year, grill sales totaled an estimated $1.52 billion. By 2012 grill sales are expected to reach $1.36 billion, a 17.9% increase. The South is home to five of the top 10 markets in grill sales in 2007. Together the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas, Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W. Va., Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, Fla., Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land, Texas and Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga., metro areas accounted for 9% of all grill sales in the nation last year. Because all are expected to exceed the national average in sales growth, EASI projects their share of sales will be 10% in 2012.

Where the growth is In the Midwest

% of metros in the Midwest projected to exceed the national average in growth of grill sales

26% of large metros

8% of small metros

14% of all metros

An estimated $724.8 million in grills was sold in the Midwest last year. That number is expected to increase to $817.3 million in 2012 according to projections by Easy Analytic Software Inc. Only 14% of the metropolitan areas in the Midwest are expected to have sales growth exceeding the national average over the next five years. But the Midwest is home to the nation's third largest grill market, Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, Ill.-Ind.-Wis., where $100.9 million in grills sold last year. Sales in the greater Chicago market are expected to reach $115.3 million in 2012, a 14.3% increase, less than the national average.

In the Northeast

% of metros in the Northeast projected to exceed the national average in growth of grill sales

17% of large metros

16% of small metros

17% of all metros

The densely populated Northeast is home to three of the nation's largest grill markets, New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.; Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md. and Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, Mass.-N.H.. Together the three major metropolitan areas accounted for 10% of grill sales last year, and while sales growth in each of these markets is expected to be below the national average, EASI still expects them to account for 10% of grill sales in 2012. Overall, grill sales in the Northeast totaled $612.8 million in 2007. They're expected to increase by 11.6% to $684.1 million in 2012.